大气科学“云山论坛”系列报告-The nonlinear climate response in a warming world
报告题目：The nonlinear climate response in a warming world
报告人：王国建 崂山国家实验室 研究员
报告时间：2026年6月15日 周一 下午2：30
报告地点：地球科学学院1508
报告人简介：王国建，崂山国家实验室研究员，国家“海外高层次人才引进计划”（青年项目）获得者。2014年至2026年在澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织工作，2026年入职崂山国家实验室。主要从事大尺度海洋与气候动力学研究，在太平洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、印度洋偶极子事件的成因、影响、预测预报以及对气候变化的响应研究方面取得了一系列成果，发表高水平SCI学术论文50余篇，谷歌索引13300次，h-index 38，Web of Science索引9400次，h-index 32，2025年入选全球高被引学者之一，兼任CLIVAR印度洋专家工作组成员。
报告摘要：自然系统对外部强迫如何响应是气候变化研究最重要的科学问题之一。报告人将从印度洋偶极子在年际时间尺度到全球平均气温在百年时间尺度上刻画其时间演变并剖析其机制。相关结果证明自然系统对全球变暖的响应不是简单的线性的，在不同的时间点气候系统可能会存在着截然不同甚至相反的变化；外部强迫可以对同一现象同时产生正反馈和负反馈，正负反馈共同决定了该现象的时间演变。同时对年际尺度的ENSO对百年时间尺度上的全球平均气温的调控作用进行讨论。相关结果发表在Nature Climate Change，Nature Review Earth & Environment， Nature Communications，及Nature Geoscience。
报告题目：ENSO Interactions with Climate System Components: model biases and implications for future projections
报告人：Agus Santoso 崂山国家实验室 研究员
报告时间：2026年6月15日 周一 下午3：30
报告地点：地球科学学院1508
报告人简介：Agus Santoso is a climate scientist specialising in the dynamics of Indo-Pacific climate variability, with broad interest in global thermohaline circulation and climate modelling. He has been involved in various institutions and programs including the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. He was a researcher at UNSW Sydney for nearly 20 years before serving as the director of the international project office of CLIVAR, a core project of the World Climate Research Programme. He was a member of the CLIVAR Pacific Region Panel and its working group on tropical Pacific decadal variability. Winner of Australian Museum Land & Water Eureka Prize for Water Research and Innovation 2008. Recipient of American Meteorological Society Editor’s Award 2020. Serves on a few journal editorial boards including the Journal of Climate as an editor. Advanced understanding of extreme El Niño processes published in Nature (2013), Reviews of Geophysics (2017). Book editor & chapter author of El Nino-Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, a monograph of the American Geophysical Union. Selected as Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher in 2025. He is currently a principal investigator at the Laoshan National Laboratory.
报告摘要：The Earth’s climate has experienced rapid changes in recent decades as the globe continues to warm, marked by increased occurrences of extreme events such as marine heatwaves, droughts, floods, sea level rise, and sea-ice loss. Anticipating future occurrences of extreme events requires a better understanding of how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the most dominant driver of ocean and atmosphere variability responds to global warming. The latest generation of climate models show an inter-model consensus on the increase in ENSO variability over the 21st Century. However, model biases and unresolved processes continue to dent confidence in the projections. As ENSO dynamics involve complex interactions with various components of the climate system, resolving these biases proves to be a massive undertaking. This presentation will discuss some of these processes focusing on the interactions of ENSO with the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean, and the climatic impact of La Niña-like cooling trends in recent decades which are not captured by models. The implications for future projections are discussed, motivating research opportunities in understanding dynamical ocean-atmosphere processes and the impacts as climate models continue to evolve and new phenomena continue to be observed.
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